· Exports in May were 5,595 tons compared to 4,535 tons last year.
· Year to date exports are 78,353 tons compared to 87,346 tons last year.
Exports were strong again in May, and we expect them to tail off in June and July due to a shortage of raw material. With total supply this season estimated at 90,000 tons there will be virtually no carryover. As it is there is no size 4 or smaller available, and limited quantities of large sizes.
Over the past month it has become apparent that there is already a shortage in the market, any small lots that have come up for sale have been aggressively fought over by packers. Plants are empty for the first time in many years. We have heard from several sources of exporters delaying June and July shipments into new crop.
So a tight transition is going to keep things interesting, especially as most retailers will tender in the coming few weeks, and the packers will have no buffer or option to hedge with current crop.
We have had mid and late season frosts which reduced the crop by 30 to 40%. We understand the official estimate about to be published will put the new crop at 86,000 tons, which fits very much with our expectations. With no carryover this year means supply is down again, for the fourth year in a row!
Recent total supply beginning of the crop
2018 Crop. 130,000 tons
2019 Crop. 105,000 tons
2020 Crop. 90,000 tons
2021 Crop. 86,000 tons (est.)
The new crop quality looks good so far, fruit will ripen over the next month so there is still time for hail and rain damage until the end of July. All eyes are now on the TMO support price. We do not expect any weakness in prices in the near to medium term.