Exports steady - New Crop Looking Good
Exports in May were 4,827 tons compared to 4,928 tons last year
Year to date exports are 60,319 tons compared to 72,813 tons last year
Exports were in line with expectations, We expect to finish the season somewhere short of 70,000 tons for a drop of around 20% year on year.
Prices of current crop have drifted lower despite tight supply due to expectations of a normal crop for 2024.
2024 Crop
We carried out our usual survey of the major growing regions during the beginning of June. We are expecting a return to a normal crop size following several years of short crops
We are forecasting a crop of 120,000 tons +/- 10%
This is based on an average yield of fresh fruit of 70 Kgs per tree and assuming normal demand for fresh fruit markets.
Key observations from the survey as follows:
Haci Halil variety (which represents over 60% of trees) has moderate to heavy yields resulting in medium and small sized fruit.
Kaba Asi variety was light or very light in most growing areas. This will result in mainly large fruit from this variety.
The quality looks good with minimum blemishes.
The trees are looking much healthier than last year.
The harvest will start on time at the end of June.
Harvest may be a challenge due to a lack of labour following the earthquake last year. Costs have increased significantly due to inflation far exceeding the depreciation in the Lira over the past year. It may take longer than expected for prices to start to reflect the more normal crop size as farmers are already indicating resistance, and many will hold on until spring pending frost damage to the 2025 crop.